AI electricity growth needs a denominator

Historical report — The IEA’s April 16, 2026 report estimated that global data-centre electricity demand grew 17% in 2025, with AI-focused facilities growing 50%. The second figure described a subset, not another increase to add to the first. ^[1]

A December 2024 U.S. Department of Energy release supplied a different frame. Its Berkeley Lab report put American data-centre electricity use at 176 terawatt-hours in 2023 and projected 325–580 by 2028. That national forecast range concerned a different geography and period from the IEA’s global growth estimate; it was not observed 2028 consumption. ^[2]

Units also change the question. EIA’s reference distinguishes watts of power at a moment from watt-hours of energy over time. A project’s megawatt capacity therefore needs an operating period and usage assumptions before comparison with annual electricity consumption. A large capacity announcement alone does not establish how much electricity a site actually used. ^[3]

The IEA identified interacting uncertainties: efficiency improvements, adoption and changing capabilities that enable more intensive tasks. Its outlook depended on their direction; falling energy per simple query did not fix future demand. ^[1]

About this item: Retrospective report. No first-hand reporting or independent testing is claimed. Corrections policy.