February’s first GDP estimate showed slower growth before later revisions

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that U.S. output grew at a 1.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2025. Its February 20, 2026 release put the preceding quarter at 4.4%. The advance release had been postponed from January 29 following the federal shutdown. ^[1]

Those numbers describe the February assessment, not today’s estimate. By April 9, BEA’s third estimate put fourth-quarter growth at 0.5%, after a further downward revision to investment. Reading the advance figure without that revision context would overstate the growth reported in the subsequent account. ^[2]

In February, consumer spending and investment supported growth, while government spending and exports declined. BEA estimated that reduced labor services from federal employees subtracted about one percentage point from quarterly growth, while cautioning that the shutdown’s full economic effects could not be isolated. ^[1]

The data disruption also affected prices. With October consumer-price observations unavailable, BEA filled gaps using September and November indexes. Its annualized quarterly rates should be distinguished from annual growth: the advance report estimated full-year 2025 growth at 2.2%, comparing the year’s output with 2024. ^[1]

About this item: Retrospective source brief. No first-hand reporting or independent testing is claimed. Corrections policy.