The NBA redesigned its lottery for 2027

The NBA’s May 28, 2026 lottery reform was designed to make the bottom of the standings less attractive. Beginning in 2027, it expands the field to 16 teams and draws all their first-round positions. Among clubs missing both playoffs and play-in, seven receive three balls each; the three worst records receive two. The new system covers the 2027–2029 drafts, with another governors’ vote required for 2030. The mechanism changes the relative reward for losing, while the league’s stated anti-tanking purpose remains an intended effect. ^[1]

The May 10, 2026 drawing provides a separate baseline for reading selection rights. Washington won first choice, while the published order listed the Clippers fifth via Indiana and Atlanta eighth via New Orleans. Those parenthetical origins identify traded picks rather than the receiving clubs’ own records. The order assumed favorable exercise of swaps; it was not a list of player selections. ^[2]

A 2024 study by Martin B. Schmidt compared player combinations in 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 around the shift to equal 14% top-pick odds for the three worst teams. Lottery contenders’ chosen lineups increasingly fell below the model’s best performance at a given risk in the earlier season; that association disappeared later. This hindsight model neither directly observes intent nor tests the new lottery. ^[3]

About this item: Retrospective report. No first-hand reporting or independent testing is claimed. Corrections policy.