The tax-fraud estimate came with uncertainty
GAO’s September assessment and earlier screening audit answer different questions.
- Event / announcement date
- 2026-09-25
GAO’s September 25 report estimated annual tax-fraud losses at $116 billion–$304 billion using 2018–2024 data. It models uncertainty; it is not a tally of adjudicated theft in 2026. [1]
The report distinguishes intentional fraud from calculation errors or inability to pay. It urged a coordinated antifraud strategy; IRS partially agreed. GAO still lists both recommendations open. [1] [2]
Screening also creates a service burden. A May TIGTA audit reported about 7.5 million identity-theft filter selections across 2024–2025, using December 2024 and November 2025 snapshots. IRS resolved 955,000 selections without contacting taxpayers, as of November 2025. Selection was not itself proof of fraud. [3]
For someone receiving an IRS identity-verification notice now, the agency’s current guide says to verify its authenticity and follow its instructions. It specifically says not to file Form 14039 when using the Identity and Tax Return Verification Service. [4]
The source
- GAO: Tax fraud assessment ↗
Source date 2026-09-25 · reviewed October 29, 2026 - GAO: Full report ↗
Source date 2026-09-25 · reviewed October 29, 2026 - Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration: Identity-theft screening audit ↗
Source date 2026-05-13 · reviewed October 29, 2026 - Internal Revenue Service: Identity theft guide ↗
Undated reference · reviewed October 29, 2026 · No publication date is given on this reference.
About this item: Retrospective report. No first-hand reporting or independent testing is claimed. Corrections policy.
