WMO’s June outlook put El Niño likelihood at 80%

The World Meteorological Organization’s June 2, 2026 outlook assigned an 80% probability to El Niño during June–August. It put the chance of continuation through at least November near or above 90%. The agency said most models pointed to at least a moderate event, possibly a strong one, while uncertainty remained about peak strength and timing. ^[1]

El Niño involves warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and can change temperature and rainfall patterns far beyond that region. WMO’s update combined forecasts from global producing centres with assessments by meteorological services and climate specialists. It also issued a seasonal climate update incorporating other drivers to refine regional expectations. ^[1]

The probabilities describe what forecasters expected in June, rather than a retrospective measurement of every subsequent impact. WMO stressed that events vary with their intensity, duration, seasonal timing and interaction with other climate patterns. Even within a region, effects differ, and extreme weather can occur without El Niño. The useful distinction is between a large-scale climate outlook and a guarantee of particular weather in a particular place. ^[1]

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